Voting Behaviour and Social Clas

In this document I present IPSOS MORI numerical data on Social Class and Voting Behaviour 1992-2010 followed by a link to EXCEL diagrammatic presentations of the same data and a basic summary of the changing patterns of voting behaviour between 1992 and 2010. There follow some further questions which hopefully will enable students to investigate recent patterns of voting behaviour in more detail. I hope that the assignment will help to familiarise students with voting behaviour statistics and illustrate some important trends in voting behaviour, especially the significant decline in class voting between 2005 and 2010. Students may prefer to focus especially on the 2010 General Election data.

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	1992			1997			2001			2005			2010
	Con	Lab	LD	Con	Lab	LD	Con	Lab	LD	Con	Lab	LD	Con	Lab	Lib Dem
Total
AB	56	20	22	41 [-15]	31 [11]	23 [1]	39 [-2]	30 [-1]	25 [2]	37 [-2]	28 [-2]	29 [4]	39 [2]	28 [0]	29 [0]
C1	52	25	19	37 [-15]	39[ 14]	22 [3]	36 [-1]	38 [-1]	20 [-2]	37[ 1]	32 [-6]	23[ 3]	39 [2]	28 [-4]	24 [ 1]
C2	38	41	17	31 [-7]	50 [9]	16 [-1]	29 [-2]	49 [-1]	15 [-1]	33 [4]	40 [-9]	19 [4]	37 [ 4]	29 [-11]	22[ 3]
DE	30	50	15	21 [-9]	59 [9]	13 [ -2]	24 [3]	55 [-4]	13 [0]	25 [1]	48 [-7]	18[ 5]	31 [6]	40 [-8]	17 [-1]

	1992	1997	2001	2005	2010
AB Con	56	41	39	37	39
C1 Con	52	37	36	37	39
C2 Con	38	31	29	33	37
DE Con	30	21	24	25	31
AB Lab	20	31	30	28	28
C1 Lab	25	39	38	32	28
C2 Lab	41	50	49	40	29
DE Lab	50	59	55	48	40
AB Lib Dem	22	23	25	29	29
C1 Lib Dem	19	22	20	23	24
C2 Lib Dem	17	16	15	19	22
DE Lib Dem	15	13	13	18	17

The 1992 General Election: See Column Two .The high point s of class voting were in the General Elections of 1950 and 1951 since when a process of class dealignment has occurred. Nevertheless there are still significant relationships between social class and voting behaviour in the 1992 General Election. Middle class voters are considerably more likely than working class voters to vote Conservative and working class voters are considerably more likely than middle class voters to vote Labour. However there is also substantial non-class voting. Support for the Liberal Democrats varies little along class lines middle class voters are slightly more likely than working class voters to vote Liberal Democrat..
The 1997 General Election: See Column Three. In 1997 voters in all social classes switched substantially from Conservative to Labour. Notice however that the percentage switches were greater in the middle class than in the working class thus suggesting further class dealignment between 1992 and 1997.
The 2001 General Election: See Column Four. There was a substantial decline in turnout between 1997 and 2001 but Labour again won a substantial victory. The pattern of class voting was very similar to 1997 and the percentage changes in each cell for the 2001 General Election are usually small although there is quite a substantial switch from Labour to Conservative voting among DE voters.
The 2005 General Election : See Column 5 In 2005 there is a slight switch in AB support away from both Conservative and Labour to the Liberal Democrats. However much more significant is the switch of C1, C2 and DE voters away from Labour and partly to the Conservatives and partly to the Liberal Democrats.
The 2010 General Election See Column 6 AB and C1 support for the Conservatives increases but C2 and DE support for the Conservatives increases by more. AB support for Labour is unchanged , C1 support for Labour falls by 4% but C2 and DE support for Labour falls by 11% and 8% respectively. In terms of class voting the 2010 General Election is highly significant because patterns of voting behaviour among AB, C1 and C2 voters are virtually identical or, putting it another way , social class differences in voting behaviour between AB, C1 and C2 voters have virtually disappeared. Only Social Class DE is significantly less likely than the other social classes to vote Conservative and significantly more likely than the other social classes to vote Labour and even for the DE support for Labour is considerably smaller and support for the Conservatives considerably greater than in previous General Elections.
All of these points are illustrated in these EXCEL diagrams. Here you will find three sheets of numerical data and their related EXCEL Charts. Sheet One/Chart One presents the data on Social Class and Voting Behaviour relating to all three major political parties while Sheet Two/Chart Two focuses only on the Conservative and Labour Parties and Sheet Three/Chart Three focuses only on the Liberal Democrats. The diagrams may help to clarify the overall statistical patterns

Questions

Explain the term "Partisan Dealignment".
Explain the term "Class Dealignment"
Use the data in the second column of the second table above to show that there were considerable social class differences in voting behaviour in 1992.
Between 1992 and 1997 a substantial percentage of voters in all social classes switched from voting Conservative to voting Labour. Give three reasons why this may have occurred.
Briefly compare patterns of social class voting in 1997 and 2001. Was there much change?
What happened to AB support for the Conservative Party and for the Labour Party between 1997 and 2010? Did very large changes occur?
How would you explain trends in AB support for the Conservative and Labour Parties between 1997 and 2010?
What happened to C1 support for the Conservative Party and for the Labour Party between 1997 and 2010. Did very large changes occur?
How would you explain these trends in C1 support for the Conservative and Labour Parties between 1997 and 2010?
What happened to C2 support for the Conservative Party and for the Labour Party between 1997 and 2010? Did very large changes occur?
How would you explain trends in C2 support for the Conservative and Labour Parties between 1997 and 2010?
What happened to DE support for the Conservative Party and for the Labour Party between 1997 and 2010. Did very large changes 0ccur?
How would you explain trends in DE support for the Conservative and Labour Parties between 1997 and 2010?
How would you describe the social class basis of Liberal Democrat support?
Has overall support for the Liberal Democrats increased or decreased between 1992 and 2010?

Now let us look carefully at the 2010 General Election. Fill in the following brackets for the 2010 General Election.

Fill in the brackets AB % Conservative =[ ]; AB % Labour = [ ]; AB % Liberal Democrat = [ ]
Fill in the brackets C1 % Conservative = [ ] : C1% Labour = [ ]; C1 % Liberal Democrat = [ ]
Fill in the brackets C2 % Conservative = [ ] : C2% Labour = [ ]; C2 % Liberal Democrat = [ ]
Very importantly what does this tell you so far about the extent of social class differences in voting behaviour in 2010?
Now fill in these brackets DE % Conservative [ ]; DE % Labour [ ]; DE % Liberal Democrat [ ]
Would you accept the general conclusions that social class differences in voting behaviour as between social classes AB, C1 and C2 were negligible in 2010 ; that only the DE grouping was noticeably more pro- Labour and less pro-Conservative than the three other social classes; and that even among the DE grouping their support for Labour was significantly lower than it has been in the past?

These data show a significant decline in social class voting between 2005 and 2010 primarily because Labour has lost support among the working class while retaining much of its support among the AB section of the middle class. Also the Conservatives have gained support primarily from the working class while their middle class support has remained relatively static. But a week is a long time in Politics: currently opinion poll data indicate that Labour support among C2 voters has increased thereby increasing the overall social class basis of voter support since the 2010 General Election.

From your answers to questions 6-13 would you conclude that the following statements are TRUE or FALSE?